Muted global trade recovery in 2020 – ING
(8 January 2020 - Global) After falling in 2019 for the first time in a decade, global merchandise trade will grow again in 2020 by only 0.5 percent, reversing the 2019 contraction of 0.5 percent according to ING.
In ING’s base case, the Dutch bank expects the US to maintain a tough stance on trade with pressure applied by ‘jawboning’ with threats as opposed to real action.
An upside risk is that the US and China strike a trade deal in 2020. In that case, ING assumes that half of the tariff increases implemented during 2018/19 are rolled back. The US-EU trade negotiations could also finally make progress, taking the threat of car tariffs off the table for good.
“The lifting of tariffs would add a small tailwind to growth, with the improvement in sentiment helping global economic activity to rebound. In this scenario, world trade could make a decent recovery – if the improvement were to come halfway through 2020, world trade could grow by almost one percent” ING THINK Economic and Financial Analysis authors Raoul Leering, Joanna Konings and Timme Spakman quoted.