Australian corporates have seemingly
never had it so good. Revenues are up - interest
rates are low. Business confidence is up - company
taxes ‘may’ be
lowered. Much needed demand growth in non-mining
sectors continues to gather pace, the Australian
dollar is forecast to fall to US$0.68 by June
according to East & Partners research and commodity
prices are trending higher, supporting the country’s
trade balance favourably.
Why then is such a palpable level of
positive sentiment among Australia’s largest
enterprises belied by a sense of concern? Are
conditions not as resilient as they appear?
Aside from major macro headwinds such
as stagnant wage growth, household debt approaching
A$2.5 trillion, trade protectionism and geopolitical
threats, what is holding corporates back from
scaling up well overdue capital expenditure?
To better understand forward dated
borrowing intentions among Australian corporates,
East & Partners (E&P) partnered with S&P Global
Markets Intelligence (S&P Global) to develop the
Business Credit Demand Forecast report. The powerful
analysis presents current debt aggregates mapped
against predicted borrowing demand for the upcoming
year based on 806 direct interviews with CFOs and
corporate treasurers of public and private
enterprises. Corporates included in the
representative national research sample had annual
turnovers above A$100 million.
E&P demand-side, forecast analytics
were overlaid on S&P Global’s underlying aggregate
debt data for listed and private Australian
enterprises for the first time, providing a weighted
measure of forward business credit demand. The
inaugural analytics are designed for application to
both internal client bank credit reporting purposes
and corporates undertaking sector based
benchmarking.
Corporates
reported current and forecast changes in both short
and long term debt mix, discontinued debt
facilities, cost of debt, debt-to-equity ratio
changes, reasons for borrowing and barriers to
investment. What was clear from the first round of
research is that significant variance in credit
appetite and debt mix exists by sector, segment and
debt facility.
CFOs are highly
sensitive to changes in gearing levels and seek to
implement transparent balance sheet management. New
capital expenditure is a major focus area for banks
and corporates alike as many sectors hold back on
launching new debt funded projects, citing concerns
over their current debt load or servicing the loan
over an extended period if the cost of debt rises.
When corporates were asked if they
expect their cost of debt to increase, and by how
much, all 806 respondents expected interest rates on
loans to rise from record lows on average by 0.92
percent, headlined by Consumer Discretionary and
Real Estate sectors. Despite the low interest rate
environment, many large scale projects are being
funded out of cash flow without any equity raising
taking place or with a small component of corporate
debt.
Telecommunications, Real Estate and
Materials sectors represent the bulk of new credit
demand. Less than two thirds of enterprises in these
sectors are currently sourcing enough credit for
both operational and capital expenditure needs.
Conversely firms based in the Energy, Healthcare and
IT sectors report a high level of debt utilisation.
Less than one in five corporates in these sectors
are not sourcing enough credit to meet new
investment requirements.
The primary reason for increased
borrowings is the low cost of debt capital currently
available, nominated by 58 percent of corporates,
followed by project specific needs (36 percent) and
general balance sheet management (34 percent). The
proportion of firms seeking new debt funding for
planned merger or acquisition activity is relatively
low at 21 percent, as is internal capital
expenditure needs (20 percent). Of the 14 percent of
corporates decreasing borrowings, almost one in two
cite adequate working capital needs already in place
(44 percent), followed by improved capital
management (40 percent), a response to reduced
customer volumes (23%) and sales of operating
entities (19 percent).
S&P Global Fixed Income research
revealed in a recent report titled "Asia-Pacific
Refinancing Study - A Peak Of $253 Billion In Rated
Corporate Debt Is Set To Mature In 2020" that
between 2018 and 2022, US$1.1 trillion of rated
Asia-Pacific financial and non-financial corporate
debt should mature, representing close to 11 percent
of total global debt maturing. Almost two thirds of
total regional debt is attributed to corporates in
Australia, New Zealand and Japan and scheduled to
rise to a peak of US$253 billion in 2020, from
US$206 billion in 2018. About one fifth is from
Chinese companies.
As part of the Business Credit Demand
Forecast analysis, Australian corporates indicated
that up to A$980 billion in debt facilities was
unused or discontinued in 2017, comprised
predominantly from Other Borrowings (76 percent),
Term Bank Loans (12 percent) and Senior Bonds &
Notes (8 percent). Interestingly the majority of
discontinued credit facilities was Long Term debt
(91 percent) as opposed to discontinued Short Term
debt lines (9 percent).
Forecast corporate debt is set to
increase to A$1.85 trillion in 2018, with short and
long term debt comprising 31 percent and 69 percent
of current debt facilities respectively. By sector,
Industrials and Utilities carry the highest
debt-to-equity ratios of 1.44 and 1.51 respectively,
in contrast to high levels of equity funding
characterising the Materials sector with a ratio of
0.42.
Upcoming rounds of research will
provide valuable proof points for the ability of
CFOs to accurately forecast changes in credit demand
and reactiveness to changing underlying credit
conditions. Balancing business and technology
investment ‘animal spirits’ against long term
sustainable capital management remains an
ever-present challenge for CFOs and corporate
treasurers however improved granularity in credit
reporting, forecast borrowing demand and reasons
behind decision making is integral for both banks
and corporates to successfully navigate the year
ahead. |