WTO Predicts Global Trade Growth to Contract
(6 April 2023 – Switzerland) The World Trade Organisation (WTO) announced that it expects global commerce growth to decline to 1.7 percent in 2023 compared to 2.7 percent recorded in 2022.
The subpar global trade growth forecast is a slight upgrade to its previous projections. The 2.7 percent increase in world trade volume in 2022 was lower than the 3.5 percent rate forecast in October by the WTO.
Weighed down by the effects of the war in Ukraine, stubbornly high inflation, tighter monetary policy and financial market uncertainty, the volume of world merchandise trade is expected to grow by 1.7 percent this year, a smaller than expected increase that was pulled down by a sharp slump in Q4 2022.
The WTO expects trade growth in 2024 to rebound to 3.2 percent and GDP growth to 2.6 percent but noted that its estimate is “ tinged with greater than usual uncertainty”.
"This makes it even more important for governments to avoid trade fragmentation and refrain from introducing obstacles to trade. Investing in multilateral cooperation on trade would bolster economic growth and people's living standards over the long term," said WTO Director-General, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.
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