(30 May 2025 – Australia) SME revenue forecasts reveal a widening disparity in how small business owners view their future growth profile, ScotPac research shows.
The difference in revenue growth forecasts between the most positive and negative small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) has extended to a record high, according to ScotPac.
The largest range of forecasts in the eleven year history of ScotPac’s biannual SME Growth Index Report, based on East & Partners research, exposed a contrast in SME confidence by state and sector vertical.
ScotPac research showed the gap between the most positive and negative six-month revenue growth forecasts for SMEs stretched to 48 percentage points.
The most positive businesses flagged 18 percent revenue growth and the most pessimistic predicted a 30 percent decline, a record gap between the two.
In total across Australia, 59 percent of SMEs expected to see half-year revenue growth, which is nearing the record high of 63 percent achieved in 2014.
“Despite the mixed results, it is encouraging that most SMEs are projecting a rise in short-term revenue” commented ScotPac Group Executive, Client Acquisition, Craig Michie.
“Considering the cost challenges SMEs faced in 2024 it’s great news that average revenue forecasts remain in the black,” Michie added.
“The surge in optimism from businesses in resource-rich states shows no signs of slowing, while SMEs with tight margins or high exposure to discretionary spending are understandably more cautious about the future.”
“There are more challenges on the horizon for business owners with the super guarantee set to rise again in July, and the ongoing uncertainty around tariff policies.”
“However, with inflation and interest rates expected to ease in coming months, there are good prospects of SME confidence lifting across more states and sectors.”