(16 December 2025 – United States) Is the US Dollar’s status as the world’s dominant reserve currency for the pricing of global commodities, payments in international trade, cross border finance and investment set to end?
Gold and Bitcoin hitting all-time highs in 2025 recuperated concerns over currency debasement for the USD as the purchasing power weakened due to inflation coupled with poor fiscal and monetary policies.
The US dollar index, which tracks the performance of the US dollar against a basket of global currencies, has fallen over eight percent in 2025.
Gold has shifted from a speculative trade to a tier-one monetary asset following the global implementation of Basel III banking rules in H1 2026, setting the stage for a long-term move to US$10,000 an ounce. Gold is being driven by central banks preparing for a monetary reset, specifically highlighting China’s aggressive accumulation.
Data released by China’s customs agency reported a record trade surplus exceeding US$1 trillion, driven by a surge in exports to the Global South. Chinese exports to the US fell 29 percent in November.
“It is possible that the ‘risk on’ episode after Liberation Day was a one-time event and that, barring future Liberation Days, the dollar will retain its status as a safe asset and dominant currency. But it could be that even as financial markets have calmed down, investors and businesses around the world are starting to reduce their dependence on the dollar for trade, payments and saving, and that it will take more time for this to become apparent” commented American Enterprise Institute Senior Fellow, Steve Kamin.
“An erosion of dollar dominance is all the more likely if the US government continues to follow policies that dampen economic growth, maintain fiscal excess, threaten central bank independence and undermine global allegiances. In that scenario, the loss of dollar dominance itself would be the least of our problems.”