(10 June 2026 – Global) The World Trade Organisation (WTO) reports that resurgent demand for AI-related investment underpinning growth in global goods trade is being offset by headwinds stemming from rising uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict.
The US/Israel – Iran war disruption to global supply chains has continued to reshape trade in both agricultural and energy markets. Trade volumes for agricultural raw materials has dipped below the WTO’s baseline figure, while export orders, air freight and container shipping are all lower than before the conflict arose.
A cease fire deal has reportedly been reached between the US and Iran. A document signing will take place Friday, with “pre-implementation discussions” expected in the interim, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said.
“Farmers across Asia, Africa and Latin America are grappling with higher production costs and difficult choices regarding fertiliser use and crop decisions. The strait typically carries 30 percent of global fertiliser exports and 50 percent of sulphur exports and the effects on food production are becoming increasingly visible” commented United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation Director-General, Qu Dongyu.
International agencies have continued to warn that longer-term demand is likely to outstrip supply if the conflict continues, particularly as oil inventories become increasingly depleted. The heads of the International Energy Agency, International Monetary Fund, World Bank and WTO issued a joint statement in May warning that inventories were being drawn down “at a record pace”.
“If shipping flows do not return to normal, continued rapid depletion of global oil inventories ahead of peak summer oil demand in the Northern Hemisphere would present increasing risks for fuel security, market conditions, and broader economic resilience” they said.
Financing deployed by the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) trade and supply chain division has surged 50 percent in value year-on-year in the wake of the Middle East conflict. The ADB has funded almost US$1 billion in energy security-related transactions and a further US$600 million in food security deals this year.
“There is a big increase in demand for trade finance from ADB, largely because credit limits that are available in developing Asia are getting squeezed because of higher commodity prices. Financial institutions have country and counterparty limits to support trade, and now that commodity prices have, in some cases, doubled, it’s eating away at those available limits” stated ADB Trade & supply Chain Division Director Steven Beck.
“And financial institutions see a more challenging risk environment, so they are not likely to increase those limits at any great clip. As a result, transactions not seen as critical to food or energy security may be getting left out.”