(20 July 2026 – China) Fitch Ratings anticipates the Renminbi (RMB) to appreciate further to 6.72 against the US Dollar by December 2026, implying an appreciation of four percent through the year.
Despite being a managed currency, the RMB appreciated three percent in H1 2026. China’s trade-weighted exchange rate remains well below pre-pandemic levels in real terms, anchored by weak domestic price pressures.
China has continued to record strong trade surpluses but has also witnessed increasing shares of external receipts and FX converted into RMB. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has been accommodating appreciation pressures, but is also limiting the extent of the appreciation through FX market intervention.
“The dollar strengthened by around three percent on the US Dollar (DXY) index in the first six months of the year. Part of the appreciation took place in the first few weeks of the US-Iran conflict. The dollar has then strengthened further as US economic data have been resilient, and expectations for US rate cuts by the Fed have been shelved or postponed. But FX forecasts in the June 2026 Global Economic Outlook suggest that the dollar on the DXY index will reverse its appreciation by year-end. We then expect the DXY index to ease only slightly next year by 0.3 percent” commented Fitch Ratings Director, Alex Muscatelli.
“We expect eight out of 16 currencies of the Fitch-20 to appreciate by year-end, with sizeable appreciations expected for the Korean won of 7.7 percent, and the Australian and Canadian dollar, both about five percent. We expect the euro and the yen to appreciate 3.7 percent by year-end. We expect measures taken by the Indonesian authorities to stabilise the rupiah. The Turkish lira is expected to depreciate by around nine percent up to year-end, and we expect some of the strength in the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso to unwind” stated Fitch Ratings Senior Analyst, Zazral Purewsuren.