(21 September 2026 – Global) The global trade landscape of 2026 is based on the “new normal” of trade incentives and barriers, geopolitical shocks and policy uncertainty that have created a markedly different environment.
Trading relationships are being reassessed, supply chains are being reconfigured, and assumptions about efficiency, resilience and risk rewritten according to the latest Citi GPS report “The World Rewired – Shifts in Global Trade and Foreign Direct Investment”.
In the Citi GPS February 2026 report “Supply Chain Financing: Durable Global Trade in the Age of AI”, the bank found that global supply chains had been resilient despite geopolitical pressures.
Six months later, disruption is now a feature of global trade.
Citi analyses the most recent East & Partners data on trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to assess whether global trade remains robust.
Since February, two overlapping pressures have intensified:
- US tariff policy has continued to reshape import flows
- The Iran conflict has introduced an energy shock that has pushed shipping costs higher, disrupted Middle East routing and kept Citi’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index at its highest sustained level since 2021–22.
“Shifts in economic power, differences in economic systems, growing government interventions, the ubiquity of global value chains, the rising importance of digitalisation and artificial intelligence, environmental challenges and geopolitical tensions are testing rules designed in an earlier era” stated WTO Chief Economist Robert Staiger.
The most notable change has been corporate behaviour. The updated large corporate analysis based on direct interviews conducted by East & Partners with 709 CFOs and treasurers of large corporates globally reveals companies entered 2026 focused on a new priority: extracting liquidity from the supply chains they have already restructured.
Treasury functions are being asked to surface cash that has been embedded in supplier relationships, inventory positions and payment cycles.
The trade reorientation documented in February has continued to accelerate. China’s pivot away from Western markets toward Latin America, Africa and Oceania is now reflected clearly in official shipping and payment data. AI adoption in trade operations has moved into the mainstream with usage among large corporates nearly tripling since 2024.
“This report explores how global trade is not in retreat despite a highly fragmented policy environment. Trade is evolving supported by innovation, investment and operational agility from macroeconomic conditions and shifting trade corridors to the practical realities of working capital, financing and technology adoption” commented Citi Services Global Head of Trade and Working Capital Solutions, Adoniro Cestari.
“Long-standing assumptions have been turned upside down, power is shifting and the world is changing. AI will accelerate changes and for those ready to seize it there are large opportunities for growth.”
“Our aim in this report is to provide a clear-eyed, forward-looking perspective on how global trade is being reshaped, and why its capacity to survive, and to thrive, should not be underestimated.”
“Companies are rebuilding supply chains for resilience and optionality, not abandoning the global system that underpins them.”
“Geopolitical pressures are accelerating decisions that efficiency alone would never have forced. Domestic flows are strengthening across every major region. Capital is still moving, just more selectively and with greater strategic purpose. The defining shift of this era is not the end of global supply chains. It is their deliberate redesign.”
Key Takeaways
- Iran conflict takes its toll: Brent oil has stayed elevated ($90/barrel) despite continued diplomatic efforts. This pushed Citi’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index to its highest level since 2021–22.
- Payment flows holding strong: Despite US tariffs and the Iran conflict, Citi’s payment network data showed 40 percent YoY growth across all sectors in H1 2026 – a signal that corporate transaction activity remains robust.
- Tech flows surge on AI spend: Technology payment flows rose 50 percent YoY, anchored by a global AI capex cycle that pushed US AI spending to over $450 billion annualized. Cross-border flows from Taiwan to Singapore alone were up 90 percent.2
- Liquidity now the top priority: 72 percent of global corporates identify releasing trapped liquidity as their top strategic priority for the next 12 months, up from 66 percent at the start of 2026.
- Cost pressure is structural: 68 percent of corporates cite rising input costs as the primary driver of working capital decisions, and 48 percent flag geopolitical risk, with both figures still rising. High interest rates are cited by 59 percent globally, climbing to 86 percent in LATAM.
- Liquidity now the top priority: 72 percent of global corporates identify releasing trapped liquidity as their top strategic priority for the next 12 months, up from 66 percent at the start of 2026.
- Cost pressure is structural: 68 percent of corporates cite rising input costs as the primary driver of working capital decisions, and 48 percent flag geopolitical risk, with both figures still rising. High interest rates are cited by 59 percent globally, climbing to 86 percent in LATAM.
Download The World Rewired here