(10 November 2025 – China) Since the outset of 2025 as US tariff measures roiled international trade, Chinese exports to the US are down US$75 billion and Chinese exports to Asia are up by US$150 billion in value.
China’s exports fell overall in October following months of surplus trade to front-load US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, heightening concerns over the broader economic impact of the long running US-China trade war. Chinese exports to Europe, Africa and Latin America are effectively flat. Economists estimate the loss of the US market has slashed export growth by two percentage points, or 0.3 percent of GDP.
US-bound Chinese goods face an average tariff rate of 45 percent, above the 35 percent level economists infer Chinese manufacturers’ profit margins are effectively eliminated.
“In the US, we see a K-Shaped economy. Since the beginning of the year, profit margins have increased for the ‘Magnificent Seven’ shares including Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Tesla yet declined for everyone else. Before and during the pandemic, lower-income households experienced higher wage growth than other income groups. But that has changed over the past year. Today, wage growth for low-income workers is significantly lower than wage growth for middle and high-income workers” commented Apollo Chief Economist, Tosten Slok.
“In China significant demographic headwinds are also at play. In 1963, 33 million babies were born in China. In 2024, there were 9 million” Slok added.
“The drop in exports is due to a combination of geopolitical uncertainty and technical factors, such as China shutting down for an extra holiday this year compared to last. With the trade truce, we should be expecting the outlook to stabilise in the near-term. Longer term, there’s still going to be the ongoing supply chain move out of China and also both countries will try to reduce their interdependence, and we’re going to see the US share of China trade, especially exports, drop” commented UOB Economist, Woei Chen Ho.
