(6 November 2024 – United States) The outcome of the US election will have an enormous impact on global trade, protectionism and USD hegemony to geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East, South China Sea and Taiwan.
Trump’s aggressive tariff rhetoric, set to impose 60 percent trade taxes on China specifically, would create a truly isolationist and protectionist US. The seismic shift away from free trade is something the world has not grappled with since the Great Depression in the 1930s where “beggar they neighbour” policies flourished in the lead up to World War II.
Global foreign powers have rarely been so explicit in disclosing their preferred electoral outcome for Trump or Harris, ranging from public endorsements to covert interference efforts from Russia and Iran flagged by US intelligence agencies.
“This is not the apocalyptical contest over the future of American democracy that some, mainly Americans and Europeans, make it out to be. Biden was more consultative and predictable, but let’s not forget that Biden was not consulting you to inquire how your family is doing, but to see what you are prepared to do to advance America’s strategic goals” commented Singaporean Diplomat, Bilahari Kausikan.
Governments have undertaken advanced modelling to determine the impact from an uncertain US election outcome with the Australian Treasurer noting that “any diligent government” must consider different scenarios when it comes to election outcomes in a “big, significant country like the US”.
“Australia has been and will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of well‑functioning global markets. Trade wars can be costly for countries like Australia. We need more engagement with the world, not less. That’s what our policies are all about” stated Australian Federal Government Treasurer, Jim Chalmers.
“In terms of the US-Australian relationship, I think we’re going to be bigger than any individual election outcome regardless of what it is. A strong US economy is good for Australia and good for the world. And I tell you what, we’ve seen, a strong US economy, there’s no doubt about that” said Australian Shadow Treasurer, Angus Taylor.