(28 July 2025 – Global) US import trade volumes fell sharply in June as tariffs steadily begin to adversely impact economic growth.
Inbound volumes at the ten largest US ports fell eight percent year-on-year (YOY) in June 2025, representing the second straight monthly decline following a seven percent decline in May 2025 according to the latest McCown Container Volume Observer report. Outbound volumes also fell five percent in June.
Annual declines in US container imports have occurred only twice before in history, during the global financial crisis (GFC) and the pandemic with both episodes short term acute disruptions. Inbound container volumes surged 15.2 percent annually in 2024 and traditionally outpaced US GDP growth by a significant margin.
The downturn follows a strong April as suppliers boosted inventory ahead of the tariff deadline, leading to a ten percent lift. Q2 2025 ended with a two percent overall decline in inbound containers, down sharply from the ten percent growth recorded in Q1 2025.
“It is now most likely that there will be a decline in overall annual inbound volume in 2025. The reversal is one of the most significant year-over-year changes in the 60-year history of US container shipping. Increasing supply chain instability is occurring with some importers abandoning cargo entirely when tariffs exceed the value of their goods. This has created irregular shipping patterns that could cause bottlenecks reminiscent of the pandemic-era congestion” commented Shipping Analyst John D. McCown.
“The more inbound container volume to the US declines, the more commerce and growth will be impacted but the less inflation we will get. The less inbound container volume to the US declines, the more inflation we will get but the less commerce and growth will be impacted. There is simply no good place to be on that spectrum.”
Source: Bloomberg