(29 September 2025 – Australia) Small-to-medium enterprises (SMEs) are displaying unprecedented polarisation in their business revenue outlook, with the gap between the most optimistic and pessimistic six-month revenue forecasts reaching an all-time high.
The September 2025 edition of ScotPac’s SME Growth Index reveals 59 percent of SMEs expect revenue to rise in the six months to March 2026, forecasting a record average increase of 10 percent. However, 35 percent anticipate revenue to fall by an average of 14 percent over the same period.
The most bullish SMEs are projecting growth of 19 percent, while the most pessimistic are bracing for a 30 percent decline. This 49-point spread between the top and bottom forecasts represents the largest divide in the 11-year history of the SME Growth Index.
The research, based on direct interviews with 724 small businesses conducted by East & Partners, shows a record 25 percent of SMEs are in outright contraction mode – three times higher than the first Growth Index Report in 2014.
“Once again SMEs are displaying their outright resilience with nearly 60 percent expecting growth despite rising cost challenges across our economy. However, the alarm bells at the other end of the spectrum are deafening with one in four SMEs now describing themselves as being in outright contraction. The growth outlook for SMEs has never been more divided across borders and business sectors” commented ScotPac CEO Jon Sutton.