(12 March 2026 – China) DHL reports the share of US imports sourced from China in 2025 decreased to nine percent, the lowest level since 2006 in the wake of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
China increased exports to non-US markets last year, notably African and Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam. The share of US imports sourced from China fell to nine percent, down from 13 percent in 2024 and less than half the peak of 22 percent in 2017 according to DHL.
Citi reports that US import growth is stronger from nearly every region except China. This underscores a broad US diversification away from direct Chinese sourcing. Increased imports from ASEAN, India, Vietnam, Mexico, Korea, and Japan point to a wide reconfiguration of supply chains.
The World Trade Organisation (WTO) reports that investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure underpinned resurgent global trade in goods such as semiconductors and data transmission equipment. Trade in AI-related goods is expanding rapidly amid a race to build data centre capacity, driving 42 percent of goods trade growth over the first three quarters of 2025.
Global goods trade is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 2.6 percent through 2029, in line with the past decade. Bank economists predict that elevated inflation will persist through at least the middle of 2026, driven partly by an anticipated surge in oil prices as a result of the US/Israel war with Iran in the Middle East.
“Trade is like water, it will always find a way. It will flow in different directions. People are out there going for commercial deals, mini trade deals, formal trade deals. Trade ministers are flying to countries they’ve never flown to before” commented DHL Express CEO John Pearson.
“Last year’s trade figure, which is based on data for the first three quarters, is even below the level when China entered the WTO in 2001. Still, there is no clear declining trend in US reliance on shipments from China when considering Chinese inputs in goods imported from third countries. While there is much less direct trade between the US and China, indirect trade has maintained a substantial amount of interdependence between those two economies” stated DHL Initiative on Globalisation Director at NYU, Steven Altman.
“Overall, global trade volume grew faster in 2025 than in any year since 2017, excluding the volatile pandemic period, partially because US buyers rushed to import goods ahead of tariff hikes” Altman added.
Source: Citi GPS 2026 Report – Supply Chain Financing Durable Global Trade in the Age of AI (N: 710)