(30 January 2026 – Global) East & Partners global analyst team highlights key trends for 2026 identified by CFOs, treasurers and financial institutions in the latest Analyst Meeting Insights.
FX Volatility is Back
Heightened volatility and the dollar’s depreciation following US tariff announcements were linked to a surge in spot and forward trading as market participants managed currency risk and actively hedged USD exposures. Turnover in global FX markets averaged US$9.5 trillion per day in April 2025, a 27 percent increase from April 2022 according to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Significant financial markets turbulence was recorded in the wake of US tariff measures and mounting trade protectionism.
Will this trend continue into 2026?
“We expect that monetary policy, hard data and the more traditional means of forecasting FX movements will return to the forefront as the President licks his wounds from the tariff debacle. In the UK, we anticipate that the stress seen in the bond market in early August will recur, putting ongoing pressure on GBP valuations with each miss in government borrowing and the upcoming budget” Caxton reports in its year-end FX Volatility Report 2025.
Financial markets are now defined by heightened volatility, uncertain monetary policy (and challenges to independence in the US) and simmering trade tensions fought on terms weaponising tariffs and protectionism. Convera outlines multiple major forces redefining global finance including:
- Why central bank independence is under threat and what this means for FX markets
- How tariff-led fragmentation is reshaping supply chains and pricing dynamics
- The slow fade of the US dollar and what comes next for global currencies
- Actionable insights to help you navigate uncertainty and unlocking opportunity
Where will the Aussie Dollar end the year against the USD and other majors currencies?
Already in 2026 the A$ has reached the strongest against the US dollar in nearly two years after breaking through 70c, the highest against the Euro in almost a year and the strongest in decades against the JPY.
“The Aussie typically does well against most currencies when the world economy is in a cyclical upswing. And you’ve seen that at a very extreme level this past year, with the Aussie dollar against the Japanese yen and Aussie-Euro, and the Aussie-Sterling up a bit as well” commented CBA Head of FX International and Geo Economics Joseph Capurso.
Can Banks Keep Pace with Rapidly Evolving Corporate Financing Trends?
The way public companies fund expansion plans is evolving rapidly. The private capital into public company wave is building quickly offshore with enormous levels of private capital flowing into listed hyperscaler data centre developments. Intel borrowing US$11 billion from an Apollo Global-led syndicate to expand its manufacturing facilities would usually be considered core capex.
Exclusive research by East & Partners and Capital Brief has found that private credit take up by corporates is surging, despite growing regulatory scrutiny of the sector.
This year, ASIC threw private credit into the spotlight due to the opaqueness of the swelling sector that it estimates to be worth at least A$200 billion. The corporate regulator flagged that private credit would be a top priority in 2026.
“Will it catch on? We think boards will see Rio exploring private capital options for its Pilbara power network and rethink what could be outsourced in their own capex plans. Not everything has to be owned on the balance sheet, particularly if someone else can own it more cheaply, and it is not a highly strategic investment” commented Chanticleer columnists James Thomson and Anthony Macdonald.
“Most companies have been doing it in property for ages. Coles’ new automated distribution centre in western Sydney sits in a Goodman Group industrial estate, for example. So why not other infrastructure?”
Banks have also taken heed of the “balance sheet optimisation: sentiment, evidenced by BoQ spinning off its asset finance book to free-up capital and enhance sub-optimal return on equity (ROE). A soon to be announced buyer following an extended sale process would take on both the net interest income streams and exposure to credit losses while BoQ retains an annuity-style income for origination and servicing. It would be the first transaction of its kind for an Australian bank according to BoQ, overseen by incoming CEO Rod Finch.
The Year of the Fire Horse Heralds Growth and Opportunity
More than ever, cash management and transaction banking represents the core foundation for customer engagement as the new year heralds growth and opportunity according to East & Partners 2026 Banking Outlook.
Leading corporates seek enhanced treasury management capability, relationship management and specialist advice amid the cavalcade of innovative AI solutions set to face closer scrutiny as product, service and customer utilisation accelerates.
Demographic changes are also a key area of focus and not confined to wealth management only as a record 31 percent of wealth is concentrated in the “Baby Boomer” generation among individuals aged over 70 in the United States, up from 19 percent in 1990.
LGT’s Outlook 2026 highlighted three key themes including artificial intelligence (AI), water stress and digital assets.
“In 2026, the first cohort with no memory of the global financial crisis (GFC) comes of age in an as-yet undefined era. With historical markers losing relevance and a market driven by policy and geopolitics, it is smart diversification that must be investors’ core discipline” commented LGT Private Banking Global Head Investment Solutions, Mika Kastenholz.
East & Partners Letter to the Market outlines four strategic priorities for Banks in 2026:
- Deepening Relevance: expanding coverage in high growth and fast evolving areas.
- Enhancing Access: faster delivery of insights to decision makers.
- Elevating Impact: embedding insights into execution and avoid overwhelming ‘data dumps’.
- Heightening Customisation: more flexible, dynamic client engagements.
November Analyst Meeting Insights
The November 2025 analyst meeting insights highlighted emerging trends across bank risk management, stablecoins, AI integration and legacy system upgrades.
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