IMF forecasts unbalanced world economic growth
(13 April 2011 – Global) Latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) showed that global financial health is strong despite the sovereign debt crisis in Europe.
IMF chief economist Oliver Blanchard says the world's economic recovery is gaining strength but was quick to point out that it remains unbalanced.
'For the world economy, for both 2011 and 2012, we expect the growth rate to be 4.5 percent, a fairly high growth rate,' he said.
The details of the 4.5 percent growth rate were a median range forecast – the IMF expect advanced economies to grow by 2.5 percent while emerging and developing countries were forecast at 6.5 percent for each of the next two years.
IMF highlighted the risk of surging oil prices to the global economy, and acknowledged the difficulty in forecasting the Arab world due to the effects of political unrest.
Natural disasters were also a concern – with the Japanese earthquake causing uncertainty.
Australia’s economic growth was challenged by the recent natural disasters as well as global risks such as the sovereign debt concerns in Europe Treasurer Wayne Swan said in a statement.
‘’Our devastating summer of natural disasters means that Australia's economic growth will be impacted in the short term, as will the Budget from reconstruction spending and lower tax receipts,’’he said.
Treasury's analysis indicates that the combined impact of natural disasters at home and abroad could cut Australia's economic growth by up to 0.75 of a percentage point to an annual rate of 2.5 per cent in 2010-11, Mr Swan said.
But he said the downgrade in the growth forecasts would only be for a short time with the economy expected to pick up following the natural disasters.
‘’The IMF projects growth for the Australian economy of 3.0 percent this calendar year and 3.5 percent in 2012.’’
'For the world economy, for both 2011 and 2012, we expect the growth rate to be 4.5 percent, a fairly high growth rate,' he said.
The details of the 4.5 percent growth rate were a median range forecast – the IMF expect advanced economies to grow by 2.5 percent while emerging and developing countries were forecast at 6.5 percent for each of the next two years.
IMF highlighted the risk of surging oil prices to the global economy, and acknowledged the difficulty in forecasting the Arab world due to the effects of political unrest.
Natural disasters were also a concern – with the Japanese earthquake causing uncertainty.
Australia’s economic growth was challenged by the recent natural disasters as well as global risks such as the sovereign debt concerns in Europe Treasurer Wayne Swan said in a statement.
‘’Our devastating summer of natural disasters means that Australia's economic growth will be impacted in the short term, as will the Budget from reconstruction spending and lower tax receipts,’’he said.
Treasury's analysis indicates that the combined impact of natural disasters at home and abroad could cut Australia's economic growth by up to 0.75 of a percentage point to an annual rate of 2.5 per cent in 2010-11, Mr Swan said.
But he said the downgrade in the growth forecasts would only be for a short time with the economy expected to pick up following the natural disasters.
‘’The IMF projects growth for the Australian economy of 3.0 percent this calendar year and 3.5 percent in 2012.’’
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